Present but Silent: Libya's Thirty Years at the World's Climate Table

Imagine a meeting held every year for thirty years to decide the future of the planet's climate. Now imagine a country that is warming twice as fast as everyone else, that depends on water it cannot replace, and whose cities are increasingly struck by deadly floods.

You would expect that country to be one of the loudest voices in the room. For most of those thirty years, Libya said almost nothing. The world's climate meeting, explained in one minute.

Every year since 1995, governments have gathered at a United Nations conference called the COP — the "Conference of the Parties". The "parties" are the countries that signed the UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: the 1992 treaty in which almost every nation agreed to work together on climate change. In 2015, at the 21st COP in Paris, countries added the Paris Agreement. Each country promised to set its own climate targets, update them regularly, and report on its progress.This November, the 31st COP takes place in Antalya, Türkiye. Libya will be there. But, as you will see, not as a full member of everything being discussed.

Why the silence?

Few countries have as much to lose from climate change as Libya. It produces less than 0.2% of the world's greenhouse gases, yet it is among the most exposed to heat, drought and floods. So why the silence? Two reasons. The first was money. Libya holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves — about 48 billion barrels, a little under 3% of the world's total. Oil and gas bring in more than 95% of its export earnings and most of the state's income. For governments that depended on oil, global talks about burning less of it looked like a threat to revenue — not a shield for their own people. For years, Libya simply followed the line of the oil-exporting countries. The second was conflict. After 2011, the country split between rival authorities in the west and the east. Ministries were divided. Climate change dropped to the bottom of the list.

Libya joined the UN climate treaty in 1999 — and then did not send the UN a single report on its emissions for 26 years. The clearest sign of how little climate counted is something that didn't happen. Members of the climate treaty are expected to send the UN a regular report on their emissions and their plans. Libya joined in 1999. Its first report was completed in 2025.

A signature, a vote — and a missing piece of paper

On 22 April 2016, Libya signed the Paris Agreement at a ceremony in New York. But here is something many people do not realise: signing a treaty does not make you a member. It is a statement of intent. To actually join, a country must ratify it — approve it at home, and then formally deposit an official document with the United Nations. In August 2021, Libya's House of Representatives voted to approve ratification. The European Union publicly welcomed the decision. And then… nothing. The official document was never deposited in New York. Today, only three countries in the world have signed the Paris Agreement without ratifying it: Iran, Yemen — and Libya.

The night that changed the conversation

In September 2023, Storm Daniel and the collapse of two dams killed thousands of people in the city of Derna in a single night. A few weeks later, at the COP in Dubai, countries launched a new Loss and Damage fund to help vulnerable nations recover from climate disasters. After Derna, Libya's interest was no longer abstract — it was painful and personal. And because the fund serves every developing member of the UN climate treaty, Libya can apply even without having ratified Paris. Something shifted. Libya had already created a National Climate Change Committee in 2021. In 2023 it added an executive office to run the technical work. And then, in under three years, it did what it had not done in a quarter of a century.

Three plans in three years

With help from the European Union, Germany and the UN Development Programme, Libya wrote its first three climate documents:

• The INC — Initial National Communication (2025): Libya's first full report to the UN on its climate situation. It counts emissions and identifies where the country is most at risk.
• The NAP — National Adaptation Plan (2025): the plan for coping with impacts that can no longer be avoided — heat, drought, floods.
• The NDC — Nationally Determined Contribution (2026): Libya's pledge under the Paris Agreement: what it will do to cut emissions and adapt by 2035, and what it will cost.

On 7 July 2026, the Prime Minister endorsed them and launched all three together as Libya's "Strategic Climate Framework". From silent delegate to a country with a plan — in three years. That is a real achievement.

The paradox Libya carries to Antalya

So here is the strange situation as Libya heads to COP31:

• Its government has approved a full set of climate plans written in the language of the Paris Agreement.
• Its parliament voted to join that agreement five years ago.
• Yet Libya is still not a member.

That gap has real consequences. At the Antalya meetings of the original climate treaty, Libya is a full member. But at the Paris Agreement meeting, it can only watch. It cannot take part in decisions — and it cannot use the Paris Agreement's carbon markets, one of the few new sources of money that could pay for its plans. The government has the plans. Parliament has voted. One official document in New York stands between Libya and full membership.

What Libya could do in Antalya

If Libya wants to arrive as a serious player, these are the moves that matter most:

1. Deposit the ratification document and announce it in Antalya. Membership begins 30 days after the document is lodged. It would remove the biggest doubt that funders have about Libya's plans.
2. Speak as a Mediterranean country. Storm Daniel hit Greece and Libya in the same week. Libya could lead a conversation with its neighbours on storms, early warnings and dam safety.
3. Bring projects, not wish lists. Funders respond to ready-to-finance projects: capturing wasted gas at oil fields, a first large solar plant, water-saving hubs for farmers.
4. Make a strong case for Loss and Damage funding — built on hard evidence of what Derna cost.

5. Bring the country with it. Mayors from flood-hit towns, young climate activists and women's groups belong in the delegation.

    

Sources:

1. ^

   State of Libya, First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement (2026).

2. ^

   OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin (2025).

3. ^

   State of Libya, National Adaptation Plan (2025).

4. ^

   Libya Observer, “Libyan parliament ratifies the Paris climate agreement” (August 2021).

5. ^

   Anadolu Agency, “Trump withdraws US from Paris climate agreement, joining Iran, Libya, and Yemen” (2026).

6. ^

   UNDP Libya, “From Climate Commitments to National Action” (July 2026).