Libya's Climate Plan, Decoded: What It Promises, What It Costs, and Who Pays

Three years ago, Libya did not know how much greenhouse gas it produced.

There was no official count. No climate office. No plan.

Today there are three plans, more than three hundred pages of analysis, and a price tag of over $30 billion. Here is what they say — in plain words.

First, the count

Greenhouse gases are gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane that trap heat and warm the planet. Because some trap more heat than others, scientists convert them all into an equivalent amount of CO2, written CO2e.

In 2023, Libya emitted 97.3 million tonnes of CO2e. That is 13.3 tonnes per person — roughly double the world average.

Where does it come from? Almost nine-tenths comes from energy: 

Look inside the energy sector and three culprits stand out:

• Power stations (33% of all emissions): old, inefficient turbines — and a growing habit of burning oil instead of gas to make electricity.
• Oil and gas fields (28%): mostly gas flaring — when oil is pumped, natural gas comes up with it. Instead of capturing it, much of it is simply burnt off in giant flames. In 2025, Libya was the sixth-largest gas flarer on Earth.
• Transport (24%): petrol and diesel cost almost nothing — about 0.15 Libyan dinars a litre — and public transport barely exists.

Libya burns off gas worth billions of dollars at its oil fields — while burning expensive oil in its power stations.

The promise: cleaner growth, not less growth

Libya did not promise to cut its total emissions. It expects its economy to recover and grow. Instead, it promised to cut its carbon intensity — the pollution produced for each dinar of economic activity.

Think of it like a car's fuel use. The economy can travel further, as long as it burns less per kilometre.

The pledge has two levels:

• With its own money ("unconditional"): cut carbon intensity by 28% by 2035.
• With international help ("conditional"): cut it by 49% by 2035.

Now here is the twist the headline numbers hide. Look at what happens to actual emissions:

With Libya's own effort alone, emissions still rise — about 20% above today's level by 2035. Only with international support do they fall below today's level, by about 15%.

In other words, whether Libya's pollution actually goes down depends on money from abroad.

The cheapest win on the table

Over ten years, the plan would avoid about 250 million tonnes of emissions. Where would those cuts come from?

• Capturing wasted gas at oil fields — 36% of all cuts
• Cleaner, modern power stations — 26%
• Saving energy (LED lights, smart meters, efficient appliances) — 15%
• Solar and wind power, reaching 22% of electricity by 2035 — 10.5%
• Cleaner transport, including 100,000 electric and hybrid vehicles — 5%
• Planting 100 million trees — 4.5%

The total cost: $29.6 billion between 2026 and 2035. Libya says it can pay about $9.2 billion. The other $20.4 billion — more than two-thirds — it hopes will come from abroad.

Now compare two bars on that chart.

Capturing wasted gas delivers more than a third of all the cuts for only about 6% of the cost. It would also save gas worth around $14 billion — gas that could light homes or be sold abroad.

It is, by a wide margin, the best deal in the plan. If Libya does one thing first, this is it.

Preparing for what's already coming

Cutting emissions helps the whole planet over decades. But Libyans also need protection now — from heat, drought and floods that are already arriving. That is called adaptation, and it is the job of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP).

The plan divides Libya into five risk regions — the coast, the transition zone behind it, the interior desert, the far south, and the sea itself — each facing different dangers. It then picks 14 priority actions, grouped in plain terms around:

• Water: monitoring wells, refilling underground water naturally, and managing water fairly and efficiently;
• Food: drought-resistant crops, climate information for farmers, and secure land rights;
• Nature and cities: restoring degraded land, greener and better-drained cities, sustainable fishing;
• Information: a national early-warning and climate data system.

By 2035, the goals include cutting by 30% the number of people exposed to repeated drought, protecting 70% of the most exposed coastal and urban areas from floods, and extending early warnings from about 15% to 80% of people at risk.

The bill for adaptation: $1.9–2.4 billion for the 14 actions, or about $2.9 billion including coastal defences and larger water projects. Again, most of it — up to nine-tenths — depends on foreign funding.

The cost of doing nothing? More than $3.5 billion by 2035, according to the plan's early estimate.

The five cracks in the foundation

Writing these plans was a genuine achievement. But five weaknesses could stop them from ever leaving the page:

1. Too much depends on others' money. Foreign aid to Libya is only about $200–300 million a year — a fraction of what the plans require.
2. Libya spends far more keeping fuel cheap. The IMF estimates around $17 billion a year on fuel and electricity subsidies. Funders will notice.
3. Public money is hard to follow. There is no single national treasury account, and climate spending is not tracked.
4. There is no climate law — and the Paris Agreement is still not ratified.
5. Too few voices were heard. The pledge itself admits that only "limited consultations" took place because of time pressure.

The plans are written. The question now is whether anyone will build them.